I have gone back to 2015 and replicated my2018 analysis of the impact of winning the toss on the first 40 county championship games of the season. Comparing the two years it is remarkable how similar they are. A few tables illustrate the point.
| Win the toss outcomes | '15 | '18 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 14 | 13 | |
| Lose | 11 | 13 | |
| Draw | 15 | 12 |
| Batting first outcomes | '15 | '18 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 14 | 14 | |
| Lose | 11 | 12 | |
| Draw | 15 | 12 |
| Win the toss and bowl / elect to bowl | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| '15 | '18 | ||
| Win | 8 | 8 | |
| Lose | 8 | 9 | |
| Draw | 11 | 8 |
There's a good post on By the sightscreen which suggests perhaps a similar pattern in 20:20. The toss doesn't matter much but batting first might give a slight advantage.
In the county championship the consistent data is coming from 2015 and 2018 despite the change to the rules on the toss in 2016. Does this mean the changes have had no effect? I think that's the case but there is one piece of contrary evidence.
In April 2015 winning the toss and bowling first was a successful strategy 4 wins to two defeats. But in 2018 electing to bowl first didn't provide an advantage, indeed sides bowling first lost 5 and won just two. So you could create a narrative: English pitches in April are very seam friendly. Before the rule change home groundsmen had no incentive to prevent this because "their" team had as good a chance as the opposition to bowl first. Post 2018 groundsmen tried to prepare better batting tracks to avoid the home side being put in on a green wicket.
It sort of holds together but personally I'm not buying it. The number of games in April is a small sample size reduced further by a high percentage of draws. In my opinion noisy data is the most likely explanation for the divergence.
Comments
Post a Comment