Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from October, 2022

What's Better; Heuristics or Statistics

My favourite cricketing site (Sideon view aside) is Edmund Baylis' "Red Ball Data".  Sadly he posts less than he used to but at the start of the 2021 season he predicted the finishing positions for the county championship.  I've always had a suspicion that a lot of statistical work has a negative value, not adding much to the accuracy of predictions at the cost of a lot of additional complexity So Red Ball data providing free to air predictions gives us an interesting mini experiment. What I've done below is, in the left hand column, set out the final county championship tables for divisions 1&2.  The middle column is Red Ball data predictions (Red Ball had a few teams in equal positions which I've just ordered any old way) and the right hand column is the teams, first sorted into division 1&2 and then by 2021 finishing position.   Actual Red Ball Data 2021 Order         1 Surrey Lancashire Warwickshire 2 Lancashire Essex Lancashire 3 Hampshi