An experiment. I have a theory that most 20/20 games are 50/50 affairs. Not that it's all down to luck (although luck I'm sure plays a part.) but because the margin of victory is normally a couple of sixes versus a couple of attempted sixes caught on the boundary. If I'm right you should be able to make a small amount of money betting on 20/20 whenever a team is odds against.
Looking at this weekend's 20/20s I get the following bets (courtesy of odds checker)
Durham 6/5 Made £24
Leicestershire 6/4 Made £30
Warwickshire 13/8 Lost £20
Lancashire 15/13 Lost £20
Middlesex 8/7 Lost £20
Kent 19/17 Lost20
Gloucestshire 11/10 Lost £20
Leicestershire 7/4 Made £35
Kent 6/5 Made £24
I'll have £20 on each and update on Monday.
Made to end Saturday £13.
Sunday's games
Durham 7/4 Lost £20
Essex 13/10 Made £26
Glamorgan 11/10 Made £22
Worcestershire 9/4 Lost £20
Sussex 16/13 Lost £20
Total profit £1! For a stake of £280. Well I did say it would be possible to make a small profit. I guess bookies aren't going to mis - price consistently and obviously there is a relation between play and results in 20/20, otherwise the girl guides xi would be 50:50 to beat the West Indies. I'll run the experiment for the next round of matches.
Update for Tuesday the 15th August
Durham 13/8 Lost £20
Gloucestershire 11/10 Lost £20
Thursday the 16th
Kent 15/13 Won £23
Northamptonshire 8/11 Lost £20
Friday the 17th
Worcestershire 15/11 Lost £20
Somerset 6/5 Won £24
Kent 23/17 Lost £20
Lancashire 6/5 Lost £20
Leicestershire 2/1 Won £40
Durham 2/1 No result
Currently down £32
Quarter Final
Derbyshire 11/8 Lost £20
Leicestershire 5/4 Lost £20
Somerset 13/8 Lost £20
Warwickshire 5/4 Won £25
Finals day
Glamorgan 19/17 Lost £20
Hampshire 3/4 Lost £20
Warwickshire Lost £20
Adds up to a net loss of £127
So I have triumphantly proved myself wrong. 20/20 odds are probably about right - i.e. I don't get a sense betting on favourites would have been a much better outcome. Ah well back to the drawing board.
Looking at this weekend's 20/20s I get the following bets (courtesy of odds checker)
Durham 6/5 Made £24
Leicestershire 6/4 Made £30
Warwickshire 13/8 Lost £20
Lancashire 15/13 Lost £20
Middlesex 8/7 Lost £20
Kent 19/17 Lost20
Gloucestshire 11/10 Lost £20
Leicestershire 7/4 Made £35
Kent 6/5 Made £24
I'll have £20 on each and update on Monday.
Made to end Saturday £13.
Sunday's games
Durham 7/4 Lost £20
Essex 13/10 Made £26
Glamorgan 11/10 Made £22
Worcestershire 9/4 Lost £20
Sussex 16/13 Lost £20
Total profit £1! For a stake of £280. Well I did say it would be possible to make a small profit. I guess bookies aren't going to mis - price consistently and obviously there is a relation between play and results in 20/20, otherwise the girl guides xi would be 50:50 to beat the West Indies. I'll run the experiment for the next round of matches.
Update for Tuesday the 15th August
Durham 13/8 Lost £20
Gloucestershire 11/10 Lost £20
Thursday the 16th
Kent 15/13 Won £23
Northamptonshire 8/11 Lost £20
Friday the 17th
Worcestershire 15/11 Lost £20
Somerset 6/5 Won £24
Kent 23/17 Lost £20
Lancashire 6/5 Lost £20
Leicestershire 2/1 Won £40
Durham 2/1 No result
Currently down £32
Quarter Final
Derbyshire 11/8 Lost £20
Leicestershire 5/4 Lost £20
Somerset 13/8 Lost £20
Warwickshire 5/4 Won £25
Finals day
Glamorgan 19/17 Lost £20
Hampshire 3/4 Lost £20
Warwickshire Lost £20
Adds up to a net loss of £127
So I have triumphantly proved myself wrong. 20/20 odds are probably about right - i.e. I don't get a sense betting on favourites would have been a much better outcome. Ah well back to the drawing board.
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