What's Better; Heuristics or Statistics

My favourite cricketing site (Sideon view aside) is Edmund Baylis' "Red Ball Data".  Sadly he posts less than he used to but at the start of the 2021 season he predicted the finishing positions for the county championship.  I've always had a suspicion that a lot of statistical work has a negative value, not adding much to the accuracy of predictions at the cost of a lot of additional complexity

So Red Ball data providing free to air predictions gives us an interesting mini experiment.

What I've done below is, in the left hand column, set out the final county championship tables for divisions 1&2.  The middle column is Red Ball data predictions (Red Ball had a few teams in equal positions which I've just ordered any old way) and the right hand column is the teams, first sorted into division 1&2 and then by 2021 finishing position.  

	Actual	Red Ball Data	2021 Order
1	Surrey	Lancashire	Warwickshire
2	Lancashire	Essex	Lancashire
3	Hampshire	Somerset	Hampshire
4	Essex	Kent	Yorkshire
5	Kent	Surrey	Somerset
6	Nothhamtonshire	Hampshire	Essex
7	Somerset	Yorkshire	Gloucestershire
8	Warwickshire	Northhamtonshire	Northhamptonshire
9	Yorkshire	Warwickshire	Surrey
10	Gloucestershire	Gloucestershire	Kent
11	Nottinghamshire	Nottinghamshire	Nottinghamshire
12	Middlesex	Durham	Durham
13	Glamorgan	Glamorgan	Glamorgan
14	Worcestershire	Middlesex	Middlesex
15	Derbyshire	Worcestershire	Worcestershire
16	Durham	Sussex	Leicestershire
17	Sussex	Leicestershire	Derbyshire
18	Leicestershire	Derbyshire	Sussex
Out by #	0	32	46

The figure to look at is at the foot of each table. The actual championship table perfectly predicts the final county championship table and is "out" by 0 places. The Red Ball Data predictions are out by 32 places, or 1.7 places a team & the rule of thumb, 2021 finishing position table, is out by 46 places 2.5 places a team. A pretty easy victory for Red Ball Data and statistics. 

The outperformance came largely from three teams. Warwickshire, last years winners came 8th this season, Red Ball data predicted 9th and would have been spot on if it hadn't been for this . Surrey this year's champions had a poor year in 2021 and Red Ball Data had them up at 5th for 2022 and Red Ball Data correctly predicted Kent would finish in mid - table, whereas their 2021 form saw them predicted to be last in the 2022 championship division 1. 

Hopefully Red Ball Data will publish his predictions for the 2023 championship and we can see if the outperformance against heuristics continues.